Voter registration figures suggest six congressional districts could be in play
The electorate who registered to vote in the Aug. 23 primary election is split fairly evenly across six of Florida’s 28 congressional districts, though Republicans hold slight advantages in each of those areas heading into general elections in November.
Registration on the electoral lists book closing for the August 23 primary election showed that Florida had 14.3 million eligible voters registered for that contest, with between 407,000 and 588,000 registered voters in all of Florida’s 28 congressional districts.
Statewide, Republicans took the upper hand, with 5.2 million voters, compared to just under 5 million registered Democrats at the last count. An additional 4.2 million voters were registered with no party affiliation or aligned with one of the eight “minor” parties recognized by the Elections Division, such as the Libertarian Party or the Green Party.
Florida’s electoral party registrations have been swinging in favor of Republicans for several years. republican governor Ron DeSantis and the GOP-controlled legislature created new congressional district maps this year that leverage those benefits for voters, with the ability to elect more Republicans to Congress.
Heading into the fall campaign for the general election, the latest official voter registration tallies show Republicans have what would likely be an insurmountable advantage in voter registration — an advantage of more than 15 percentage points over Republicans. Democrats — in eight congressional districts, under the new map. The Democrats have such an advantage in six districts.
Republicans have advantages that are strong but not out of the prospect of an upset — more than 5 percentage points but less than 15 points — in seven other districts. Democrats have that kind of advantage in two ridings.
The remaining six districts are close in voter registration numbers between Republicans and Democrats, although Republicans have slight advantages in each:
– In Florida’s 15th Congressional District, essentially Florida’s New District, serving the Polk County area of the Interstate 4 corridor, Republicans have only 1,700 more voters than Democrats in an electorate of 472,000, which is a GOP advantage of just 0.4 percentage points.
This is a much weaker advantage than the results of the last two general elections suggest, indicating that voters in the independent and minor CD 15 parties are likely to be quite conservative.
Independent and minority party voters make up 31% of the CD 15 electorate.
There, the former Republican Secretary of State Laura Lee and democrat Alain Cohn fight for a free seat.
– In Florida 2nd congressional district in the Panhandle, Republicans hold an advantage of 3,700 voters, or about 0.7% of the electorate.
That’s a much tighter Republican advantage than the last two general elections suggest. Former president donald Asset won the constituencies now gathered in this district by at least 7 percentage points in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
The voters of the independent and minority parties represent only 20% of the CD 2 electorate.
Two incumbent members of Congress face each other there: the Republican representative of the United States. Neal Dun and Democratic Representative of the United States. Al Lawson.
– In Florida 27th congressional district in Miami, the Republicans hold an advantage of 3,900 votes, or about 0.9% of the electorate.
That suggests more of a Republican advantage, compared to how voters voted in the last two general elections. Trump actually lost the popular vote tally in what is now the CD 27 compound in 2016, and barely won the vote there in 2020.
Voters from independent and minor parties combine for 33% of the electorate, nearly on par with Republicans and slightly more than Democrats.
Republican US Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is contested by Democratic State Sen. Annette Taddeo.
– In Florida’s 28th congressional district in Miami, Republicans have 5,800 more registered voters, an advantage of about 1.3% of the total electorate.
This district has largely swung in the last two general elections. Trump was outvoted in those precincts in 2016, then raised the zone to 6% in 2020
CD 28 has more independent voters than Republicans or Democrats. Independents represent 35% of the electorate.
Republican US Rep. Carlos Gimenez is disputed by the former Democratic state representative. Robert Asencio.
– In Florida’s 4th congressional district, in the Jacksonville area, Republicans hold an advantage of about 12,500 votes, or about 2.3% of the electorate.
This gap is much tighter than the results of the last general election. Trump has lifted the region in each of those elections by at least 4.9 points.
Only 23% of CD 4 voters are registered as independents or in minor parties.
Republican State Sen. Aaron’s Bean faces the democrat LaShonda Holloway for the open seat at the general election.
– In Florida 7th congressional districtthe Republicans hold a 25,000 vote advantage, or about 4.4% of the electorate.
That’s just a slightly smaller spread than Trump has enjoyed in the region in the last two general elections.
Independent or underage voters make up 32% of the electorate, slightly more than Democrats.
Republican Cory Mills faces Karen Green for the open seat there.
Republicans have solid advantages in voter registration, between 5 and 15 points, in Florida’s 3rd, 11th, 13th, 16th, 18th, 21st and 26th congressional districts.
Democrats have strong voter registration advantages in Florida’s 14th and 23rd congressional districts.
Republicans have nearly insurmountable advantages in voter registration, more than 15 points, in Florida’s 1st, 6th, 8th, 12th, 17th and 19th congressional districts, and have already won Florida’s 5th congressional district, which has re-elected U.S. Republican Representative. John Rutherford in the primary election.
Democrats have nearly insurmountable advantages in voter registration in Florida’s 9th, 10th, 20th, 22nd, 24th and 25th congressional districts.