Race rankings: Retired Democrat’s seat in Wisconsin could swing

In an environment in which Biden’s popularity has plummeted, that gives Johnson the edge, and the race begins with a Lean Republican rating.

On the House side, seven of Wisconsin’s eight races in 2022 are starting to be classified as Solid Republican or Solid Democratic, but there’s a reasonable chance there will be more competitive races in the eight years after 2022. Trump reportedly won the 1st District from GOP Rep. Bryan Steil. by just 2 points, making him vulnerable to a Democratic takeover in a future cycle that moves away from Republicans.

Before then, there could be competitive primaries, particularly in the 8th District, if GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher leaves the seat to run statewide, perhaps when Democratic Sen. Tammy’s seat Baldwin will be in place in 2024. Considering Trump would have won the seat by 15 points in 2020, the key race would be in the Republican primary.

3rd district (open; Ron Kind, D)

A decade ago, Republicans packed Democrats in this district, but the seat has become competitive because rural voters in southwest Wisconsin (and elsewhere) tend to be Republicans.

Kind won re-election in 2020, 51% to 49%, against retired Republican Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden, while Trump won leading the poll 52% to 47%. The newly drawn district is effectively unchanged, but Kind is not seeking re-election, providing an excellent opportunity for Van Orden to win the open seat.

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