Democrats face double midterm threat with voters of color
A progressive group warns Democrats they face a “double threat” as they approach the midterms: voters of color do not support Democratic candidates at the same rates, and the Republican Party is pushing new voters of color to run for and support it. the place.
Why is this important: Democrats can control the White House and both Houses of Congress now, but history shows their party is on the verge of losing seats in the next cycle. These latest findings call into question their strength with black, Latino and AAPI voters – generally considered reliable Democratic voting blocs.
- Way to Win, one of the leading progressive fundraising and organizing groups, led the study in partnership with 32 state organizations and a host of other survey and data companies.
- The report is one of the most comprehensive studies of the 2020 election.
- It analyzed 64.8 million voters who participated last year in 11 battlefield states: Virginia, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The big takeaway: Democrats made gains with some white voters in 2020 – mostly non-evangelical Christians – but saw once reliable members of their base move to Republicans.
- The GOP has increased its support in these places notably thanks to new voters of color.
- In particular, Republicans have received a boost from Latino voters in Texas, Asian-American Pacific Island (AAPI) voters in Georgia, and black voters – especially men – in Nevada, North Carolina, in. Georgia, Florida and Colorado.
- Of the 2020 first-time voters who backed a Republican candidate, around 20% were people of color. While 55% of new Democrats voters in 2020 were people of color, 20% is a high percentage for the GOP.
What they say : “These trends… demonstrate the urgent need for campaigns and independent groups to stop assuming voters of color will vote Democrats,” Way to Win written in his report.
- The group criticizes the Democratic Party for directing “the majority of resources – and genuine persuasive efforts – to white voters.”
- “Democrats face a double threat in these 11 key battlefield states – the erosion of Democratic support and a new voter enthusiasm for the GOP among voters of color and young voters.”
But, but, but: Democrats got 50% support among Latinos in all 11 states, and more than half of 2020’s early voters in those areas backed them.
- Way to Win points to the Sun Belt as an area where the Democratic Party can seek further support in 2022.
- “The majority of the likely new Democratic voters live in the south and southwest, places the Democratic establishment has long ignored or are barely waking up to,” the group wrote.
The group’s suggestion to win in 2022? “Progressives must find messages that unite the whole coalition around a shared vision.”
The bottom line: The “winning” coalition of Democrats, according to the report, is multigenerational, multiracial, and has nearly equal representation of white voters and voters of color.
- Unifying this coalition – especially for a party with self-proclaimed messaging problems – is a tall order.