60% of Americans will have a Holocaust denier on the ballot this fall

From the Carolinas to California, from Montana to Florida, election denial has spread across the country. Candidates who support former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen will appear on ballots in nearly every state this fall. FiveThirtyEight drew on news reports, debate footage, campaign materials and social media and contacted every Republican candidate for House, Senate, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General to determine their position on the 2020 elections.

There are a lot of Holocaust deniers on the ballots. Out of 540 total number of Republican candidates running, we found 199 who entirely denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. These candidates either clearly stated that the election was stolen from Trump or took legal action to overturn the results, such as voting not to certify the election results or joining lawsuits seeking to cancel the election.

Additionally, an additional 62 candidates raised questions around the 2020 election results. These candidates didn’t go so far as to explicitly say the election was stolen or take legal action to overturn it. However, they also did not say the election was legitimate. In fact, they raised doubts about potential fraud.

There was 118 candidates whose position on the 2020 election we could not determine. They either had it in the 2020 election or when asked directly.

But not all Republicans in the running agree with Trump’s claims. A total of 74 have fully accepted the 2020 election results while another 87 have accepted subject tomeaning they think President Biden won, but still expressed concerns about the integrity of the election.

In the House, many of these Holocaust deniers seem poised to win. Using the latest data from FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 Midterm Election Predictions, we can see that 118 Holocaust deniers and eight those who doubt the election have at least a 95% chance of winning. Several additional candidates who declined election are in competitive races.

In the Senate, however, there will be far fewer Holocaust deniers. Only Three Holocaust deniers are safe bets to join the Seven non-re-eligible senators who opposed certification of the 2020 election. However, a handful of others still have a real chance of winning.

In gubernatorial races, more Holocaust deniers are likely to win. At least of them Holocaust deniers and four those who doubt the election are set to be appointed governors next year. And we can’t rule out election deniers being elected governors of swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.

We are not planning elections for Attorney General or Secretary of State, but there are also Seven Holocaust deniers candidates for the post of Attorney General and Seven for Secretary of State, the position that oversees the administration of elections in most states.

Indeed, a Holocaust denier winning the election and taking office is more than a token concern. A secretary of state who denies the election could refuse to certify an election he believes was rigged. A governor refusing elections could attempt to submit electoral votes that defy the will of the people. And senators and representatives who deny the election could vote to count those electoral votes. The 2022 election will determine how many of these candidates get that chance.

Are you a Republican candidate or representative of a candidate with questions or concerns about a candidate’s status? Email Nathaniel Rakich or Kaleigh Rogers.

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